Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Underlying conditions and risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality among those with COVID-19 in Ireland: A national surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: To date, over 2 million people worldwide have died with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To describe the experience in Ireland, this study examined associations between underlying conditions and the following outcomes: mortality, admission to hospital or admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) among those infected with COVID-19. METHODS: This study used data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland and included confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the first wave of the pandemic between March and July 2020. Two cohorts were included: all cases (community and hospital) and hospital admissions only. For all cases, health outcome data included mortality and hospitalisation. For hospitalised cases, outcome data included mortality and ICU admission. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between underlying conditions and outcomes across both cohorts. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). FINDINGS: There were 19,789 cases included in analysis, which encompassed 1,476 (7.5%) deaths, 2,811 (14.2%) hospitalisations, and 438 (2.2%) ICU admissions of whom 90 (20.5%) died. Significantly higher risk of mortality, hospitalisation and ICU admission was associated with having chronic heart disease, a BMI ≥40kg/m2 and male sex. Additionally, diagnosis of a chronic neurological condition (OR 1.41; 95%CI:1.17, 1.69), chronic kidney disease (OR 1.74; 95%CI:1.35, 2.24) and cancer (OR 2.77; 95%CI:2.21, 3.47) were significantly associated with higher risk of mortality among all cases, with similar patterns of association observed for mortality among hospitalised cases. INTERPRETATION: The identification of underlying conditions among COVID-19 cases may help identify those at highest risk of the worst health outcomes and inform preventive strategies to improve outcomes. FUNDING: This study was supported by the Health Service Executive, Health Protection Surveillance Centre. KEB and MM are funded by the Health Research Board (RL-15-1579 and EIA-2019-012 respectively).